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Suar.t

Current market trend for hybrid cars

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Just need to understand what is the current market trend for hybrid cars, is it diminishing? if yes, what are the possible reasons for that? Welcome your ideas...

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In another 5-6 years, there will be a trend for EVs, just like the present hybrid trend. It's not necessarily diminishing but demand for sports cars & old fuel guzzlers have gone down for sure. Crossovers, Kei cars & new Toyotas rule the market for now.

In short, my take is the trend will be there for a while but don't expect a good resale value thanks to our fear for new tech, high maintenance costs & the influx of hybrid cars here.

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@AVANTE thank you very much for the feedback... I heard from a friend that, hybrid cars resale market exist only for 1-5 years(irrespective of it's make) and after that it's resale market value start declining... If that the case, demand for the  2014/2015/2016 hybrid cars currently at the declining stage. Is this true? 

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3 hours ago, AVANTE said:

In another 5-6 years, there will be a trend for EVs, just like the present hybrid trend.

 

Without any significant charging infrastructure development, i dont think they will be popular soon, maybe only in city limits first.

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13 minutes ago, ajm said:

Without any significant charging infrastructure development, i dont think they will be popular soon, maybe only in city limits first.

That's gonna start happening soon. With UK trying to move the petrol/diesel ban upto 2035 and manufacturers like VW investing billions upon billions in EV and cutting their lineup of fossil fueled cars, I'll be damned if the government doesn't even hiccup a teeny tiny bit in the next 5 years. Like you said, city limits first atleast.

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Well..the thing is most of these cars came with a system that was covered for 10years. Our guys interpreted that as after 10 years the system would degrade so much that it would need significant revamp, again this is not entirely true. There are vehicles that are nearing the 10 year mark (or even exceeded ?) where after a battery refurbishment or swap the system does work relatively well. But since battery and Hybrid technology has significantly changed and continue to change..there would be challenges to find replacement batteries, etc...for these vehicles..So there is a timeline for the system (i.e. a limited time period where the manufacturers would find it feasible to keep making replacement parts and support these vehicles).If you look at 2014/2015 models there are at the last stage of the 10 year old mark (i.e. the person buying a 2014 might be the only person who could use it. Thus, the person buying it will have to sell it for literally nothing, therefore the person would not want to spend that much on a vehicle that he would literally have to give away.

However, you have to understand that cars are supposed to depreciate. So you cannot expect to buy a car for X and then hope to sell it back at X (slightly lesser or at times even more). 

Edited by iRage
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3 hours ago, Suar.t said:

@AVANTE thank you very much for the feedback... I heard from a friend that, hybrid cars resale market exist only for 1-5 years(irrespective of it's make) and after that it's resale market value start declining... If that the case, demand for the  2014/2015/2016 hybrid cars currently at the declining stage. Is this true? 

There are exeptions, cars like the Fit GP1 Hybrid and 2014/15 WagonRs still have demand and hold their values alright (not best,not horrible either). But then you look at the Fit GP5, Vezel, X-trail and some less common hybrid models like the Hyundai Ioniq, those lose value like a forest fire due to being an uncommon model or having unreliability issues.

Your friend is right in the fact that after 5 years of typical use in our lankan enviornment, a hybrid will start having repairs, battery issues & other issues not related to the hybrid drivetrain. 

If manufacturers truly want to save the planet, they should do something about these hybrids because these cars get expensive and are throwaway items after 5-10 years. Also, what @iRage says is pretty much all of it summed up.

Edited by AVANTE
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Toyota seems to be moving away from hybrids to turbocharged direct injection  in the standard segment. Reason could be high system cost of Li-ion batteries and additional parts does not make a good business case unless for premium segment.

Edited by ajm
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1 hour ago, ajm said:

Toyota seems to be moving away from hybrids to turbocharged direct injection  in the standard segment. Reason could be high system cost of Li-ion batteries and additional parts does not make a good business case unless for premium segment.

A lot of the the Japanese manufacturers are looking at commercializing Hydrogen vehicles as the government is pushing it. 

The issue is even with EVs...the battery technology is problematic. Even those right now have X number of years as it just degrades. The Hydrogen vehicle on the other hand seems to be considered more sustainable (as sustainable as the ICE).

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Sri Lankan vehicle market is mostly driven based on the tax structure. 

With the current tax structure, hybrid vehicles are not attractive in Sri Lankan market. No one is going to pay 4 mil+ tax for a aqua or 8mil+ for a Prius.

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12 hours ago, iRage said:

A lot of the the Japanese manufacturers are looking at commercializing Hydrogen vehicles as the government is pushing it. 

The issue is even with EVs...the battery technology is problematic. Even those right now have X number of years as it just degrades. The Hydrogen vehicle on the other hand seems to be considered more sustainable (as sustainable as the ICE).

Hydrogen vehicles also need batteries. Toyota Mirai is having 1.6 kWh battery

Toyota Prius 3rd Gen is having 1.3 kWh battery 

Toyota Prius C/ Aqua is having 0.9 kWh battery 

 

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1 hour ago, gayanath said:

Hydrogen vehicles also need batteries. Toyota Mirai is having 1.6 kWh battery

Toyota Prius 3rd Gen is having 1.3 kWh battery 

Toyota Prius C/ Aqua is having 0.9 kWh battery 

 

Yes.. it does....apparently the battery has a longer life span  than a battery from a standard hybrid because of how the charging works. How this differs from an improved standard Hybrid battery..I have no idea especially when the same battery is used in another normal Hybrid (i.e. the Camry). I believe the other component is that an EV does not necessarily mean sustainable energy because for the most part there is a dependency on some sort of fossil fuel ? But then one can always argue that solar and other forms of energy options are developing

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14 hours ago, iRage said:

The Hydrogen vehicle on the other hand seems to be considered more sustainable (as sustainable as the ICE).

I don't think anyone could come up with a rechargeable battery that is more resilient than a tank full of liquid / gaseous fuel anytime soon

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13 minutes ago, Hyaenidae said:

 

I don't think anyone could come up with a rechargeable battery that is more resilient than a tank full of liquid / gaseous fuel anytime soon

Well...I think the belief is that hydrogen is more sustainable and accessible ? and then the electrification of that is viable in the long term.

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10 hours ago, iRage said:

Well...I think the belief is that hydrogen is more sustainable and accessible ?

Well the generation of hydrogen seems less sustainable than crude oil, isnt it?

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5 hours ago, tux said:

Sri Lankan vehicle market is mostly driven based on the tax structure. 

With the current tax structure, hybrid vehicles are not attractive in Sri Lankan market. No one is going to pay 4 mil+ tax for a aqua or 8mil+ for a Prius.

Yes, government should have a national policy driven with a common goal for the vehicle importation. If you see 2017/2018 budget, they introduced a tax relief program for the hybrid & and Electric vehicles to promote those vehicles and put a target to change all government vehicles to hybrid & electric vehicles. Form that government expected to gain benefit from the environment wise & financially wise. But i can't see any action plan for that and on their very next budget they proposed a program for the vehicles very opposite to that and introduced luxury vehicle tax for those vehicles. 

I think government also have a huge role to control vehicle market with right direction.

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7 hours ago, vag2 said:

Well the generation of hydrogen seems less sustainable than crude oil, isnt it?

Hydrogen is one of the most abundant chemicals available and the process is completely reversible so it is sustainable. You produce it via electrolysis and the fuel cell produces water.

In SL government policy sadly is not guides by what it should be in terms of sustainability, pollution and associated health risks. It is governed by exchange control and loan payments. So sadly we cannot rely on policy for the correct outcome. 

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18 minutes ago, The Don said:

you produce it via electrolysis

now i am also curious from where the Electricity for hydrogen production comes from, where the efficiency seems to be <80% does it make economic sense?

Another question is the storage, safety and Transportability of Hydrogen, compared to liquid fuels.

Edited by ajm

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